TRAE YOUNG
PAOLO BANCHERO
RUNDOWN
After tough, injury-riddled seasons, the Orlando Magic & Atlanta Hawks prepare to square off to earn the seventh seed. It’s been a tale of two seasons for both teams: the Hawks look drastically different from their Opening Night roster due to trades and a key injury to burgeoning star Jalen Johnson. Their reshaped starting five, however, has really paid dividends to this point. Superstar point Trae Young led the league in dimes (again!), spearheading a lineup that also features defensive dynamo/NBA steals leader Dyson Daniels, 2024 #1 overall pick Zaccharie Risacher, Mouhamed Gueye & (the always underrated) Onyeka Okongwu.
For years, Atlanta’s had trouble mixing enough talented, defensive-minded threats around Trae Young. Now, unit 1 is filled with long, active wings & forwards & unit 2 has some scoring pop w/ veterans Caris LeVert, Georges Niang & Terance Mann providing some offense. Their balance, along with their familiarity with Orlando as a Southeast Division rival, should bode well for them to keep up in this one.
Orlando’s had a similar story to Atlanta, though they had a much higher trajectory at the beginning of the year. The Magic really lived up to expectations before All-Star-caliber forwards Paolo Banchero & Franz Wagner went down for a good chunk of the year. By the time starting PG Jalen Suggs went down for the season, the team had also already lost Moe Wagner as well. Just like that, Orlando went from dark horse contender to complete sleeper.
Regardless of the outcome of this game (& beyond), Paolo & Franz won’t go down without a fight. Their takeover abilities and Orlando’s league-leading defense is enough to predict the W over Atlanta.
Expect Trae Young to completely control the action as he often does. But unless someone like Risacher (proved he can explode for 25-30 late in the year) goes off in strong support, Orlando will make the necessary plays to win comfortably.
“Take Note”
(ATL): Onyeka Okongwu rebounds & assists • T. Young explosion?
(ATL): Z. Risacher (minutes & production) - Won boards battle?
(ATL): Bench pts, FB pts
(ORL): Paolo & Franz total pts
(ORL): Who steps up off the bench?
(ORL): Dimes v. TOs • FG% & FGA
LINE: ORL -5.5
PROJECTED WINNER: MAGIC
STEPHEN CURRY
JA MORANT
RUNDOWN
Golden State v. Memphis is must-see TV - in an alternate world (one in which Jimmy Butler was on the Dubs at the beginning of the year), this resembles a classic 4/5 or 3/6-level of matchup. Similar to ATL & ORL, recent changes have defined (the second half of both of) these teams’s years as well. Jimmy Butler was a massive pickup for a GS squad that still has enough pieces to compete at a high mark. Stephen Curry remains All-World & Draymond Green is playing great defense as an undersized starting center.
Ironically, GSW’s shortcomings stem from a small front line that has no choice but to overextend against everyone they face. Their first test will come in the form of Memphis rookie Zach Edey, a 7’5 center who took great strides as a dominant rebounder (and post player) towards the end of the year as they fought for playoff positioning.
Beyond him, the Grizzlies remain deep with Santi Aldama, Scotty Pippen Jr., and others off the bench - can GS’s role players (Gary Payton II, Jonathan Kuminga, Moses Moody, Brandin Podziemski) keep pace? It’s easy to suggest they will - Podz is an excellent fit as a shooter & cutter in Steve Kerr’s five. He has to set the tone with that group just as much as Buddy Hield needs to do it with the second unit. If a few Warriors can get into a rhythm & produce double-digit outings, it might be a long night for the Grizzlies.
To me, though, it all comes down to Ja Morant v. Steph Curry - I think this has the possibility of being a signature performance for Ja’s young career. For Steph, it would be just one of many and doesn’t really matter much in the scheme of things. Morant, however, has been in a crazy scoring groove over the last month (avg. 30 ppg in March & April) and could really blaze a trail for Memphis to open things up from everywhere on the court. That could mean more looks for Desmond Bane, Jaren Jackson Jr. & a few other players to rack up points.
Ultimately, while it’s hard to bet against the Dubs at home, I feel Memphis pulls it out. The quick turnaround, combined with huge nights from Morant & JJJ will earn them the 7 seed.
“Take Note”
(GSW): S. Curry line • J. Butler III line
(GSW): J. Kuminga (minutes & production)
(GSW): Won board battle? • Total Stocks (Team):
(MEM): Bench rotation (minutes distrubuton) •
(MEM): Strong start? • Z. Edey minutes, pts & rebounds
(MEM): JJJ FOUL COUNT
LINE: GSW -6.5
PROJECTED WINNER: GRIZZ